The Haryana Assembly polls have concluded with unexpected twists and turns, leading to celebrations at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters. Despite exit polls predicting a clean sweep for Congress, the BJP is on the verge of a historic third consecutive victory in the state. At the time of writing, BJP holds command of the majority seats, a major deviation from the exit polls prediction of a clean sweep for Congress.

Major Winners

Nayab Singh Saini (BJP) – Ladwa

Nayab Singh Saini, who took over as Chief Minister from Manohar Lal Khattar in March, secured a significant victory in the Ladwa constituency. Saini defeated Congress candidate Mewa Singh by over 16,000 votes. His win is particularly notable given his relative inexperience and the anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP. Issues such as unemployment, dissatisfaction with local governance, and the handling of farmer protests had created a challenging environment for the party.

Bhupinder Singh Hooda (Congress) – Garhi Sampla-Kiloi

Congress veteran Bhupinder Singh Hooda won his seat by a substantial margin of 71,465 votes. Despite internal party rifts, particularly with senior leader Kumari Selja, Hoodas victory underscores his enduring influence in Haryana politics. Historically, the constituency has seen fluctuating support between Congress, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and independent candidates.

Aftab Ahmed (Congress) Nuh

In the Nuh constituency, Aftab Ahmed of Congress emerged victorious with a majority of 46,963 votes over INLDs Tahir Hussain. This win is a significant boost for Congress in a region where they have traditionally struggled. Historically, the constituency has seen fluctuating support between Congress, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and independent candidates.

Savitri Jindal (Independent) – Hisar

Savitri Jindal, Indias richest woman, won the Hisar constituency as an independent candidate. She defeated BJPs Kamal Gupta and Congress candidate Ram Niwas Rara by a margin of 18,941 votes. Jindals victory is remarkable as she contested independently after being denied a BJP ticket. Jindal was previously Congress MLA from the Hisar constituency.

Vinesh Phogat (Congress) – Julana

Vinesh Phogat, the renowned wrestler and Olympic medalist, made a remarkable entry into politics by winning the Julana constituency in the Haryana Assembly elections. Running as a Congress candidate, she defeated BJPs Yogesh Kumar by a margin of 6,015 votes.

Her victory is seen as a significant achievement for women in politics and a boost for the Congress party in Haryana. It also highlights the influence of sports personalities in Indian politics, as they bring a unique perspective and connect with the youth and broader electorate.

Surprising Losers

Gopal Kanda (HLP) – Sirsa

Gopal Kanda of the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) lost the Sirsa Assembly seat to Congress candidate Gokul Setia. Kandas defeat was unexpected given his strong local presence and previous electoral successes. Kandas political career includes serving as an MLA and holding significant sway over local politics. He had previously defeated Setia in the 2019 Assembly elections, but with a close margin of just 602 votes.

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) – Statewide

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) failed to make a significant impact in the Haryana Assembly elections. None of its candidates managed to lead even on a single one of the 90 seats, which was surprising given the partys efforts to expand its presence in the state. AAP had high expectations for these elections, especially given its success in neighboring Delhi and Punjab. The party ran a high-voltage campaign, with Arvind Kejriwal, the partys national convenor, projecting himself as the son of the soil due to his Haryana roots. Despite these efforts, the partys performance fell short of expectations.

Analysis

The BJPs success can be attributed to its strategic candidate placements and efforts to counteract anti-incumbency sentiments. The party faced significant challenges, including farmer and wrestler protests and discontent over the Agniveer scheme. However, the BJPs ability to spread its bets across the state paid off.

Conversely, the Congress partys over-reliance on the Jat community and infighting, particularly between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja, hampered its performance. The visible rivalry over the partys CM face created a divide that other communities capitalized on, leading to Congresss underwhelming results.

The Haryana Assembly elections saw a significant deviation between the exit poll predictions and the actual results. Most exit polls had predicted a clear victory for the Congress party. Regional parties and independents also played a crucial role in shaping the election outcomes. Savitri Jindals independent victory in Hisar is a testament to the influence of local leaders and the electorates desire for change.