The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a pillar of India-Pakistan diplomacy since 1960, may be on the verge of transformation. However, unexpectedly, Pakistan signaled its readiness to discuss the particular provisions of the treaty with India — a response prompted by New Delhi's decision to place the treaty “in abeyance with immediate effect” following the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam.

This is a major policy change for Pakistan, which had earlier refused to enter into treaty revision negotiations despite sustained Indian approaches. Now, with India firm on leveraging its rights over the Indus system and a four-day military flare-up paused, Islamabad seems prepared to come to the table — albeit under pressure.

Formal Response from Islamabad: A Door Opens

Pakistan’s Water Resources Secretary, Syed Ali Murtaza, has reportedly responded to India’s official communication regarding the suspension. According to government sources, Murtaza has offered to represent the Pakistani government in discussions around the specific treaty terms that India finds objectionable.

His response, however, did not come without reservations. Murtaza is said to have questioned the basis of the decision, pointing out that the treaty itself did not have any exit clause.

His communication is being viewed in Delhi as a significant shift, especially considering Pakistan’s earlier stance. Despite two formal notices from India — one in January 2023 and another in September 2024 — calling for a “review and modification” of the IWT, Pakistan had not previously agreed to engage in such discussions.

India’s third and most decisive move—placing the treaty in abeyance following the Pahalgam attack—has finally prompted Islamabad to come to the negotiating table.

From Ceasefire to Cautious Diplomacy

The change in tone comes as both nations agreed to cease military action — by land, air, and sea — following a four-day escalation post-Pahalgam. This agreement came into effect at 5 p.m. on May 10, effectively pausing Operation Sindoor, India’s targeted counter-strike campaign on terror sites in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and other parts of Pakistan.

Despite the ceasefire, India has not eased its diplomatic stance. The suspension of the IWT remains a cornerstone of its current strategy. The Indian government is now assessing Pakistan’s offer internally, weighing its options before making any commitments.

Why the Indus Waters Treaty Matters Now More Than Ever

India’s urgency to rework the treaty is rooted in its long-standing demand to utilise its full share of water from the Indus basin. This includes building infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs for power generation and agricultural use — plans that Pakistan has often opposed, citing violation of the treaty’s terms.

Islamabad, on its part, views India’s infrastructural push as a threat to the current status quo. Sources say Pakistan’s renewed engagement may be an attempt to stall these development projects, which could significantly alter water flow patterns on the ground.

Treaty Suspension: India’s Strongest Diplomatic Card Yet

Pakistan’s response was triggered by a letter from India’s Water Resources Secretary, Debashree Mukherjee, dated April 24 — just two days after the Pahalgam attack.

“The obligation to honour a treaty in good faith is fundamental to a treaty. However, what we have seen instead is sustained cross border terrorism by Pakistan targeting the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir,” Mukherjee wrote.

She further added, “The resulting security uncertainties have directly impeded India’s full utilisation of its rights under the Treaty. Furthermore, apart from other breaches committed by it, Pakistan has refused to respond to India’s request to enter into negotiations as envisaged under the Treaty and is thus in breach of the Treaty. The Government of India has hereby decided that the Indus Waters Treaty 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect.”

Message from New Delhi: No Compromise on Terror

India has continued to assert its firm position on the treaty in the days following its suspension. On Tuesday, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal made it clear that any future consideration of the IWT is contingent on Pakistan’s behavior.

“The Indus Waters Treaty was concluded in the spirit of goodwill and friendship, as specified in the preamble of the treaty… India will keep the treaty in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism. Please also note that climate change, demographic shifts, and technological changes have created new realities on the ground as well,” he said.

This mirrors the strong message delivered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi following Operation Sindoor. His statement was direct and uncompromising: “water and blood cannot flow together.”

India Seeks Treaty Reform on Its Own Terms

If and when negotiations resume on modifying the treaty, India is expected to insist on a purely bilateral framework — shutting the door on any third-party involvement, including that of the World Bank, which played a role in the original negotiations.

Among the key areas India wants to revisit is the dispute-resolution mechanism. Under the present structure, both a Neutral Expert and a Court of Arbitration can be engaged, depending on the matter. This duplication has resulted in confusion and delay, as can be witnessed in the case of Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric project.

India prefers a more streamlined system, likely a graded dispute-resolution structure that clearly lays out each stage — eliminating the scope for conflicting interpretations.

Understanding the Treaty: A Brief Overview

Signed on 19 September 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty was the result of nine years of negotiations between Pakistan and India with the World Bank as a go-between. The treaty consists of 12 Articles and 8 Annexures (A to H).

According to its provisions: all water from the Eastern Rivers — Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi — is allocated to India for “unrestricted use", and the Western Rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — are reserved primarily for Pakistan, although India retains limited usage rights for activities like power generation, navigation, and agriculture under specific constraints.

Talks May Begin, But Terms Will Be Redefined

Pakistan’s sudden openness to discussing the Indus Waters Treaty signals a diplomatic shift, but the road ahead is anything but straightforward. India’s demands are clear: a complete overhaul of dispute mechanisms and absolute clarity in treaty interpretation — all under a strictly bilateral framework. Whether Pakistan is genuinely prepared to meet these conditions, or simply buying time to protect the status quo, remains to be seen.

What’s certain is that for the first time in over six decades, the Indus Waters Treaty may be headed for a fundamental rewrite — or a potential end.

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